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How Sustainable is the Rally in Global Equities?

Markets have had a very good run since their autumn closing low, showing gains of 20%. European bank bonds , the Vix index of expected US equity volatility and short term Italian and Spanish government bonds are all back to where they stood in July, before the eurozone crisis intensified.

But is it all business as usual? Clearly these returns over the last few months are unsustainable; they merely reverse the losses made during the panic of last summer. Gains could continue, albeit not so dramatic, if all the artificially cheap money flooding Europe had actually been used to fix its underlying problems. Sadly it has not. The reality is that what caused Europe’s problems has not been addressed and its cure has merely been delayed.

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